Fiscal Effects of the Affordable Care Act

by Ian Duncan, University of California – Santa Barbara

An important new paper by Charles Blahous of George Mason University (and a Social Security and Medicare Trustee) has just been published.  Dr. Blahous re-examines some of the fiscal projections made by the CBO at the time that the bill was under debate and shows that the claims that the law would reduce the deficit are the consequence of double-counting of Medicare savings and the front-loading of premiums in the CLASS act.  Both of these points were made strongly at the time by Richard Foster, the Medicare Actuary, and the American Academy of Actuaries (regarding the CLASS Act). Whatever the Supreme Court decides about the legality of the bill, its fiscal consequences deserve honest (and actuarial) assessment and debate.

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